IT & All - No Big Kahunas here!
I posted 3 concerns I had from a warped FA perspective. This
past week's disaster was not tax selling IMHO but the earnings
warnings. I really feel for the folks in EFII that woke up late
Friday to find their stock was down 62%. I cannot even imagine
trying to explain that one to my friends!
The point is that I haven't seen this before and have a hard time
trying to react to it. Little euphonisms like the "Asian Contagion"
or whatever just don't seem to do it justice. There is some real
pain in the street.
I still belive INTC will be 50% higher in a year! Nonetheless --
specifically to Janko -- I withdraw my belief in DJIA 8800 by 4/98.
It's clear to me that this problem is much more serious than I
originally thought.
I believe, again, the daytraders cannot be hurt. Go IT! Further,
the long term investors will not be hurt -- as long term its just
noise. Go Janko. God help the the whipsawed position trader, as
it is going to get gritty. Let's hope Steve has got those candles
burning!
Someone on another SI thread indicated that 50% of the DJIA stocks
are below their 150 day moving average. To you more experienced
folks I ask what happens historically if that drops to the 200 day
MA. At this point, I've got to say, I'm watching a roving disaster!
The entire Tech sector is an absolute joke, the pain moving from
one stock to another. It seems different to me! Is anyone else
getting a similar reading?
The secondary stocks appear to be in a shambles? I believe that
based on my analysis there are only three dominant themes in this
economy - Tech, Financials and Health Care. Tech has clearly tanked!
Yet, each of us has got to ask if this is the great buying
opportunity; the typical fourth quarter rally.
As you all know, I love FA, am a newbie at TA, and my Market Timing
has sucked. I see great support for INTC at 70, but if it breaks
the next stop looks like 65. If that breaks, it becomes a secondary
stock! Your call?
I have a very difficult time reading Mr. Market when INTC drops 10%
in a week. I look forward to receiving your food for thought on the
issues presented. My DUDE vote is to go to cash and wait for Mr.
Market's Jan earnings reports.
Merry Christmas and to all a good night!
Berney |
