"Here are my mixed thoughts : nobody ever went broke taking profits, one should sell when everyone else is buying, sell into strength, if you are at critical mass you should protect it to preserve your position, or if you are at critical mass why should you be in the market, after five years of rising a rising market you should take / preserve your hard earned profits, markets crash occasionally, this boom will not go on forever and will inevitably be followed by a bust, this is the third longest bull market in history, central banks are raising asset prices and interest rates near historical lows, the fourth quarter will be probably be strong for the market, what happens when the federal reserve stops QE in the fall?"
"Currently, I am at 77% equities, 23% cash and bonds."
"I am looking to exit by the end of the year. Hopefully, not too much happens btw now and then."
MGJ
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MGJ, what is your plan here? What are the details of your plan?
Let's say "not too much happens btw now and then", and you successfully exit the stock market by the end of the year, and go to cash with the money formerly in the market.
Then what?
Sure, if we get a huge bear market like the last two, taking the market down 45% to 55% as the last two did, you will go back into the market at attractive levels.
But what if that doesn't happen? Will you stay 100% cash and bonds for life?
Timing the market is very tricky and difficult, as you've alluded to in describing Bob Brinker's failed market timing since late 2007
ETF1 Robert |
