As I interpret your theory it breaks down to Millennials and a shifting of affinity of the people towards big city living over the last several decades. According to demographic numbers Millennials account for only 23% of the population most of whom are not in their peak earning years and are more likely to be renting. On the other hand, there are approximately the same number of baby boomers who are in peak earning or retiring. One could argue that the boomers would move away from the big cities once they retired to escape the higher cost, rents, etc. This would more than offset the Millennials moving in.
Its difficult to predict the fate of American cities...........esp since hate of cities has for so long been a part of the American DNA. However, let me point out a couple of things from your paragraph above. First boomers are actually moving back into the cities.......in many American cities. They are selling their houses in the suburbs and buying condos in DT areas. The Millennials are renting and the Boomers are buying.
Secondly, I think certain cities are leading the trend......cities like SF, Seattle, Denver, Portland and Boston........yes, even Boston, Jurgis. If that is true, an interesting phenomenon is occurring in Seattle that you might want to take note. For years........decades even.........the school population in Seattle has been shrinking and schools were getting mothballed left and right. Even as Seattle's population began to grow again in the '90s, schools were getting closed. Starting around 2005 that trend began to change. It wasn't very obvious at first but some parents in Seattle began demanding that the Seattle school district reopen some of the schools that had been closed. As a point of reference, I live in a middle income neighborhood and most of the kids go to public school.Then the Great Recession hit and the trend accelerated. As a consequence, the Seattle school population is growing again andby 2020 is expected to reach levels not seen since the 1970s. In fact, a small elementary school 3 blocks from my house is undergoing rehab and will open again this fall after been shuttered for 15 years. From what I can tell, the parents are very committed to improving the district and making it a successful competitor to districts in the suburbs. So then, if Seattle is one of the leaders of the trend, might we see similar growth in school population in cities like Denver or MPLS or Madison or Portland? I don't know. Something to watch. |
