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To: JMD who wrote (6421)12/14/1997 12:21:00 PM
From: dougjn  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
Financial Times,London: <<South Korea: Who blinks first?

FRIDAY DECEMBER 12 1997

South Korea is playing a dangerous game of chicken.
Scarcely is the ink dry on last week's $57bn International
Monetary Fund rescue package than the country is asking
for disbursements to be accelerated. If Korea was
implementing the IMF's conditions with vigour, such a
request might be reasonable. But it gives the impression of
backsliding. So how can Korea hope to get its way? Only
because it thinks the IMF will be scared that if Korea
defaults on its foreign debt the rest of the world will be
dragged down with it.

Korea is used to winning its way through brinkmanship, but
this time it may be miscalculating. A default would, indeed,
have nasty knock-on effects: exposed foreign banks would
have to make provisions; the risk premium for other newly
industrialised or emerging countries would rise; and the
earnings of multinationals exposed to Korea would be
depressed. But none of this would cause a global financial
collapse. By contrast, the impact on Korea itself would be
devastating. Apart from damaging its credit-rating for
decades, a default would plunge its economy into further
immediate trouble. Financing imports, for example, would
become extremely tricky.

The IMF should call Korea's bluff and refuse further funds
until the country shows it is implementing the programme
properly. If Korea does default, at least other countries will
know the IMF means business.
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