Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 260.77

+0.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13233)	12/14/1997 12:29:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 70976

How long will the flat bottom last? At least two months, till the next earnings report. And if general uncertainty persists, a good quarterly report will only keep the stock price level. Jacob, I see it as futile trying to say where the stock price will be in 2-6 months at this point. All I can say is I believe it will be significantly higher. Worldwide Chip Sales for October were at a record, yet the popular press makes no mention of that. Sentiment at this point is decidely BEARISH. I am surprised the Dow is trading where it is even with the decline we have seem in the NAZ. We are clearly(in my mind at least) in OVERSOLD territory in the equips. By the same token, we were in OVERBOUGHT territory in August yet I was foolish for not wanting to part with my AMAT stock. IMHO, fair value for AMAT and others the ine equip group are somewhere in between the August and Dec. values and we will approach these levels once people realize AMAT is not a Korean comapny; it realizes only 8% of its sales from that country and even a Korea collapse should not impact AMAT as much the price has taken into account these past 2 months. This group is notorious for their volatility because of the equipment spending slowdown that occurs every 4-5 years. We are only in the first qtrs of the newest recovery and already people are running for the exits. If in fact, we are headed for another downturn, this would be the shortest recovery in semiconductor history. Just another tidbit. I checked the prices of the equips for price chagnge YTD. Most are down for the year with AMAT one of the notable exceptions. We are one year closer to 300mm and .18m and the fools on WS are pricing them lower even than at the start of the year. My only regret is that I cannot take advantage of this; I am trying to cover my margin calls. Hopefully the next time I will have some powder dry for these tremendous opportunities. You don't lose 60k and not take some lessons away :-(( Regards, Brian

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