Gerald and all:
One more lengthy comment before I go back to my rock. Gerald, I like the areas you choose to debate and hope this thread does more of this. While I agree with you in that The Street has started to recognise the Y2K firm, I do not believe it has collectively decided how to valuate them. Every Y2K stock you can mention has been all over the map this year. I believe this is because of the great diversity of the companies trying to tackle the problem.
First you have software companies that are trying (some successfully) to create and package off the shelf software (I call these product companies)...I believe a few of these companies will satisfy a certain demand. Then you have hardware companies that are trying to do the same to make their entry into the software market....this has historically never worked well and I believe will ultimately fail. Then, there are companies that have been formed just to tackle Y2K.....they have promise but do not have large scale project planning and implementation experience thus many will fail. Finally, you have the consulting companies that are starting to offer Y2K as an additional service....these companies already know how to implement the "full project life cyle"...I believe these companies (TPRO) have the best chance to succeed through and past the year 2000.
These are all very different corporate models. The Street is trying to fit the Y2K Company into one model. I submit they can't. I have researched this sector to death and have conluded that I was going to pick only one company that implements fundamental project planning, has a good reputation in their niche, and has the potential to use Y2K to vault them into the big leagues (Booze Allen, Ernst & Young, Anderson, etc.) The company that can do this does not have to worry about what happens after Y2K because by then they will have large project experience, a good reputation, and the ability to tackle almost any large corporate consulting project of the day. Of all the companies researched, I believe TPRO has that kind of potential.
Gerald, on your second point "TPRO is going to be more product than service" I sure hope not!! The corporate models are too different. You don't see the big name consulting firms offering many products. They may have some well known tools in their arsenal but they do not push products which is why they do well....stick to what you are good at. I see the TPRO CD as a GREAT GREAT tool that will give them exposure to ultimately land large projects the will show new potential customers that they know what their doing. Then these customers will "tell two more customers who will tell two more customers and so on and so on and so on". If I see CD sales reach a large part of corporate revenues, I will be forced to look at this company in a different way....and I fear not a good way.
TPRO is a consulting firm folks and should be measured that way. Do not under-estimate the importance if this distinction. It is not glamourous but I believe has the most potential....thats why I am in so big (at least for me).
That's all for now....thank you all for such positive comments on my last post.
Repectfully,
Gegs |
