Watch List Part 2: EFII
EFII - I'm sure there are tons of posts about it, and that all the newsletters are hyping it, so here is my call on it. If you can enter below 15.75 and exit profitably it will be a good day. If you want to accumulate up to Jnauary Effect time, then tomorrow would also be a good time to do so - but wait for the bounce and drop down and get in at or under 16 as it should reasonable go to 20 in a month and to 30 by summer. If you want to double your money in 12 months, then buy when you see the upticking on the daily chart this week - use Three days as a minimum indicator. DO NOT buy on the morning rush if its does jump up and you are not a real-time trader. Wait. The profit taking should cause a pullback mid-morning. Even if that doesn't happen, it should stabilize within 2-3 days of trading, or at least be to a point where one can see if its recovering.
I will be playing a GADZ-type intraday buy/sell/short/buy to cover/etc. as it wears on. Providing I have the time. There is a very strong possiblity it will gap in the morning, in which case I would recommend you set a limit entry TODAY and if that doesn't fill wait for the pullback. Caution - do this if you can read the intraday ticker. After 10 am you should be able to do it with delayed quotes profitably. If it opens at Friday's close and goes down, then it will only do that for a short time before starting the climb.
Friday's ticker on it was fascinating to watch. A lot of analysts ascribe the initail dumping to panic but I saw the first hour as stops being filled. A lot of folks lost a ton of money on this one, and that drove some afternoon selling (see the hump on the 1 minute ticker). This stock was pushing 60 and now is at 15. The forecasted earnings drop of 50% was devastating for a 25 point drop. Its not the leader in its sector, and dince it doesn't have the kind of contracts its competitors have it can't accurrately be compared to them. But, it is still worth accumulating for a 25% increase before Dec 31. I set a lower stop at 14.5 and set multiple mental upper stops at 16.5, 17.25, 18.5 and 19.25. Actual reentry and exit points intraday will be determined watching the upper and lower resistance improvements or leveling. Analyst's ratings have NOT been updated (except for Prudential's I think) by end of day Friday, so don't go by those. Use common sense - look at its numbers, assess the potential for the company and make you decision based on your tradings style/skill.
Again, if you want to enter this one do so as limit buys and set a protective stop for whatever your risk is. But at 15.5, 14 would be that absolute lowest limit exit I would recommend (10% below your entry). If you only wish to trade this one up, then my guess is a 20% short-term gain if you can enter below 16.
lastshadow |
