DRRISK, Just for comparison purposes, here are Creative Technologies' Quarterly revenues for the last four quarters: 9/96- 284.6mm, 12-96 386mm, 3/97 282.8mm, 6/97 280mm, 9/97 287.8mm.
Now the three acquisitions of Cambridge, (part of) Opti, and Ensoniq per the Merrill Lynch Report added cumulatively 120mm revenues annually,or dividing that by four (assuming that all quarters' revenues are the same) suggests a 30mm addition to quarterly revenue flows, or about a 10%/quarter boost to revenues.
Factoring in the Asian revenues slowdown of about 25% (which is 25% of CREAF's) business or 7.5% total business, and a bit more slowdown in Brazil, says my estimated revenue growth rate of 10.2% is high and that Merrill Lynch Report's estimate of flat revenues in 1998 looks to correlate with current status.
The wild cards here are of course two factors- potentially larger profit margins from manufacturing in devalued currency countries (note below- CREAF's profit margins have risen consistently over the last five quarters); and sales increases related to Voodoo2 Graphics Blasters starting 2d Quarter production, and increased PC-DVD sales currently... These could be positive surprises....
Sincerely,
Doug F.
P.S. Finally note that Net profit Margins have risen since the 9/96 Quarter: 6/30 [-13%]; 9/96 5.2%; 12/96 14.7%; 3/97 15.6%; 6/97 18.3%; and 9/97 24.3%. (I did not include the 6/96 Quarter since that was when CREAF wrote off its CD-Rom inventory and took a charge...). |
