When The Rock Speaks ....
To: Joel Sternberg (17808 )
From: Rocky Reid
Monday, Mar 10 1997 12:22PM EST
Reply # of 39826
Well, it is about 12:20 pm, and IOM is down 1/2 to 14 3/4 while the Dow is UP ~30, and the Nasdaq UP ~8.
IOM has much more room to fall. All of my arguments may seemingly be dismissed by the longs here, but for
some reason, the share price just keeps going lower and lower. Who is offering better advice? A CEO that
loves to hype his own stock so he can dump it like last summer, or a small investor like me who can see a bad
situation when he sees it?
To: Allen Murdock (17817 )
From: Rocky Reid
Monday, Mar 10 1997 3:09PM EST
Reply # of 39827
>> Ready Office models 1710-1715-1720 all three come with 100 mg. Zip installed.<<
Herb -
>> Thanks for posting that. I'm sure it's just another indication of how demand for Zip is decreasing. ;-)<<
And how the demand for IOM stock is decreasing. At about 2:40 PM, someone unloaded at 14 1/2. Pretty ugly
day for IOM.
Wayne Van Scoyoc (17829 )
From: Rocky Reid
Monday, Mar 10 1997 7:04PM EST
Reply # of 39827
There is very strong resistance at $15.00. We all know that your firm began shorting IOM at around $25.00.
The only "squeeze" I see is your firm trying to greedily "squeeze" just one more nickel out of this one. I think
your firm's greed on this one is unjustified especially with solid resistance at $15.00 staring you directly in the
face and knowing that more than 10 major OEMs are packing their machines with IOM products, increased
Malaysian productivity, Malaysian tax incentives and so on. I honestly think your short dollars would be better
parked in a company with a hundred plus P/E at this point. Regardless of your description of major short
selling occurring now and on any rise in price, it certainly is not reflected in the daily volume numbers I look at.
The IOM volume is very very low, which is what happens when a stock forms a base. The $15 base could last
1 day or last 3 or 4 weeks, but that is what is happening. IOM may spike down significantly intraday, but it will
always close closer to $15.<<
Since when is volume of almost 2,000,000 shares low? Future IOM earnings conjecture is NOT money in the
bank. They are a guess. They are no more valid than my claims that CD-Rewrite will eclipse Zip's claim as
successor to the 1.44 MB Floppy. This is my analysis, and I think it is valid. There are arguments others
presented over why CD won't succeed. One of these was speed. This hasn't stopped CD-ROM from becoming
the standard in software distribution. Nor from it becoming the primary game playing medium. The Cost of
Manufacturing CD's and CD-Rewrites is CONSIDERABLY less expensive than Zips or EZ_Flyers. Right
now, a bulk purchase of a 640MB Write-Once CD is $5.75, and dropping. When CD-Rewrite comes out, it
will certainly cut into IOM's sales whether they be Jaz, Zip, or Ditto. A 640MB Rewritable CD will not be
proprietary like Iomega's stuff, and therefore it will be adapted very quickly. Remember, that CD-Roms are
standard equipment on virtually ALL computers sold these days. The upgrade from CD-Rom to CD-Rewrite
will seemingly be a natural progression. From a supply-side argument ALONE I can make the case for CD's
over Zips. The COGS will be less, and the margins HIGHER for CD's. Iomega had a great 2 year run. But all
good things must come to an end. |
