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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Judy who wrote (15596)	12/14/1997 3:27:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Judy: Thanks for the update. If your still following the insurance industry I would not rotate any funds into that sector at the momment. The general AIG is under pressure with its asian exposure. I'd expect Amex to also be under pressure in the financial services and credit sectors. TRV while in good shape is on the prowl (I'd say again but SW and his team are always looking for a good bargain) and if they buy in the short term it could impact price (rumor is a large acquisition on horizon). Health care is a mess right now. OXHP is going under, analysts and investors just don't realize it yet. Is is a coincidence that the news first came out after this years open enrollment season? That move at least allowed them to increase there current live count. However, last weeks NY reserving issue sounds like fraud but we'll have to see how it unfolds. Brokerages will be steering clients away now. Now appears the "favorable" prices companies and providers obtained are due to OXHP under pricing its book. Not a surprise to its competitors who also suffered in competition. AET is fixing its claim problems ( not similar to OXHP ) but will have difficulty pushing through higher prices and terms with providers. Not sure if margins will improve as much as analyst expect next year and with OXHP's reserving problem all companies IBNR reserves will be under intense watch by their auditors. Less room to "manage" IBNR to meet plan / forecasts. I've heard rumblings on CI claim paying (not an isolated incident). Not to tie this into your tech warning (I wish I'd followed your posts in early October) but this sector will also be in trouble until after 1st quarter (AET & CI). I'll be off the net for a few days ( I do need a portable PC, will provide extra back up in case my desktop crashes, can you tell I was in insurance? kidding aside check out IOM for doing backups) and look forward to some strength to sell some positions. Best regards, Tim

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