HeyMark, I am just fighting the perenial bears on the Mohan thread.
As to your question, there are a lot of breakdown and are much more difficult to predict on volume (as a matter of fact I have no model for that, yet). I have noticed two classes, the one you cannot escape (gaping don with everyone rushing through the door at once, and then the easy one, a breach and retracement just above the breach with minimal volume (1/3 monthly average is minimal for that test). Then, it is a good point to short.
But, Mark, you know that when I turn bearish, I simply go into cash, I have not shorted a stock since August of 1987 (and it was a good one too). I know that many on these thread have painted me as a short when I had nothing good to say about their favorite stock, but since all my investing is domne in SEP acounts, I could not short evenif I wanted to.
Good to hear you (see) your voice again. By the way, I think we are going to have a rally, starting no latter than midweek, and it could huimble many a bear. But, comes late January, run for the hills. Just my humble opinion.
Zeev |
