Chris -- >Any life left on this board?<
Not presently. I have been too busy keeping up with the IV MB (in sad shape, also).
>A hard to figure stock, hard to figure future sales. Still very much a story stock.<
Yes, hard to figure. But, the story is utterly remarkable; and the stock price reflects gross ignorance. The key “overview” facts remain: the company is the world leader, by far, for a new cancer therapy regime that is very effective for a great many cancers. However, new medical therapy regimes (in contrast to, say, yet another drug) are slow to be adopted. However, BSD M’s products are being adopted -- with greater market success in foreign countries (all “FDA”s are slow – ours especially).
Investigative and clinical evidence continues to mount – very positively. And, their (presently) main product, the MTX-180, is doing well. That said, though, sales growth in the last Q more-or-less stalled for the MTX-180 line. I believe this is only a not-unusual pause in growth: before the many followers join the few pioneers. And, BSD M now has a number of additional large marketing companies “knocking on their door” (actually seeking BSD M out!).
There is much going on --- including some “takeover” attempts (futile, I believe). For example, their R&D activities are up some (they have a number of further products under various stages of development). Next up, I believe, could be an upgraded 2000-series product – which has been for hyperthermia, as opposed to ablation; but I think a “mere” upgrade of power can make it an amazing ablation machine. (There are other reasons for expecting this development – and, maybe, now or very soon). Hyperthermia importantly aides drugs, radiotherapy, and surgery – while ablation means tumor killing. My opinion is that they will, at some point, introduce a very effective lung-tumor ablation machine (also useful for many other cancers): ablating many tumors simultaneously, painlessly, and non-invasively. It would be the ultimate, magical surgical “knife”. I think the patient could just get up and walk away! I see this development as ripe for implementation, and it would be an absolute “dynamite” product – many $Billions of market potential.
As you say, “hard stock to figure” – percentagewise, almost no one understands the present products, much less those rather certain to come.
>Interesting that the CEO announced he would be leaving the CEO position recently. It could be that both the board and the CEO felt a new CEO with different skill sets was needed. Or it could be the CEO was ready to curtail his work week since he is now 67 years old. Or there could be a divergence between the board and the CEO about shopping the company around. If so, there is no clue about who was in favor of it, and who not. <
I think “Butch” Wolcott always wanted his “term” to be of limited duration – sort of his last “hurrah”. And, I think he believes BSD M is now “off and running”. So, my belief is that he wants to retire.
>BSDM has a history of puffery in their news releases. Here is recent announcement headline: "BSD Medical Reports on Continued Sales Momentum by Terumo for the MicroThermX® Microwave System."
What facts are provided under the headline? <
I think the facts are there -- despite a slowing of growth in the last Q (new medical products are, IMO, quite prone to erratic market acceptance). They actually have had large increases in sales, and they clearly state these are mostly from Terumo. And, Terumo is now expanding their MTX-180 marketing into other countries (they “serve” a total of about 100, but only about half are now covered for MTX sales. (In passing, BSD M continues to garner new distributors for both the hyperthermia and ablation products). By contract, Terumo must provide BSD M with sales projections for the next period (year, I believe) and BSD M must establish new capacity, accordingly – and mfg costs come ahead of sales.
>“Terumo has been an exceptional partner for BSD, making substantial investments in sales and marketing of the MicroThermX,” This is to indicate that significant money has been put into marketing. Is that sales momentum? The Terumo arrangement is old news and it was prior planning for Terumo to market the product.
“We are gaining sales traction in the Western European countries." Does that mean actual sales or that more money is going into the marketing effort? How about some specifics of where there are sales?
If one looks at the press releases carefully there is always this sort of slipperiness to them. Maybe the new CEO will be less slippery and not so inclined to release reports when there is not much specific to say.<
As is common, strategic alliances between mfrs and marketers typically have strict secrecy requirements. And, you can rest assured that Terumo does not want BSD M to sound their horn loudly; that activity will be reserved for Terumo! Wolcott has emphasized several times that BSD M is restricted in what they can say. Terumo is contractually required to invest considerably to promote the MTX-180 – so, they expect control over publicity. This IS a common situation.
While avoiding specifics, Wolcott and Barth are emphatic about Terumo’s performance . And they are clear about seeking other similar arrangements. And, they are legally responsible for what they say. I think they are honest in their statements. Further, the MTX-180 is, from objective reports by users, highly effective – far above any competing ablation tech.
Why is the stock price so low? 1) the company is still losing money; 2) WS pundits have close to zero ability to understand the company, the products, and their markets. Will that ignorance change? No, not really, IMO. But, rapid sales growth is happening (averaged yearly) – and profitability is reasonably nigh -- so IMO the numbers should soon be positive and easy to "read".. I recommend serious attention. As for me, I am committed for the long run. I think BSD M is going to make investment history. |
