Actually, any Fundementalist can tell you
Let's use OPTI and AMD as an example.
Both stocks thrived when there was the
perception that they had a competative
and sometimes superior product in the
channels. But when OPTi's chipset were
no longer found on OEM motherboards, and
AMD CPU's could'nt catch on in quantity,
both stocks were doomed to fail. So as
long as the Voodoe Chips are out there
we'll be just fine. But the moment you
start seeing a Wintel 3D solution inside
that Tower Case on the floor, instead
of a 3rd party product, just sell your
TDFX stock before that inventory pushout
quarter when everything still seems hunky
dory, when in fact, it's just the beginning
of the end. I've seen it too many times
not to learn the pattern. WDC recently
was a classic example. I was warning
people on that thread of it's fundemental
doom back in May'97, when it was clear
they had missed out on both the MR head
transition, and adapting the faster UDMA2
EIDE bus standard, but after a great Summer
product pushout quarter, nobody listened.
The signs were clear as day, but only WDC
admission of failure (that they continue
to blame on the industry, not their own
incompetance) finally knocks some sense
and the stock, back down to earth. |
