Tom, shoot, I feel lonely now, but am glad to hear that you have at least an inkling for a
forthcoming reversal soon. If I go down with this prediction I prefer not to be by
myself.. (ROFL).
Hi! Don. Been enjoying reading the posts of this and the ideas thread, including yours which I always fine worthwhile. Not felt like posting much but so you don't feel lonely, here goes.
I tend to agree with you and TT. My reasons are;
1. Interest rates. The long bond under 6%, mortgage rates the lowest in 30 years, zero inflation. Doesn't sound like fertile ground for a Bear market.
2. Lots of cash around looking for a home. Pension funds, IRA's, 401K money. Where is it going in CD's @ 5%? Bonds? Maybe, for a short while but soon fear of losing capital will be replaced by fear of missing the bounce up. Real Estate? I doubt it, even with mortgage rates low, it isn't the investment it was when inflation was double digit and we had the great tax incentives.
3. The economy-OK not to overlook Asia but the USA economy is the strongest it has been in many years and certainly the best since this bull market began. We have had the problems with East Germany being reunited with West Germany and the European "Union" cloud not stopping the bull why should Korea?
4. The peace factor. No more communist threat. I don't count China because it is more freemarket than the West, in many ways and Cuba's a joke. Look at the savings to the tax payers with each base closing and each company that transforms from making weapons to consumer products.
5. Most important OJ has turned from devout Bull to DEVOUT BEAR! A clear sign the bottom is close at hand:):):)
FWIW my opinion is late December/January rally especially in the techs, but the quality will count. Selling calls may loose one some upside.
regards,
Ray p.s. Not all techs are beaten up Citrix is still up above $70! |
