Hello Sankar & Alan,
Sankar, I could not agree with you more..that innovation still primarily weighs in favor of the U.S., and Alan, you are also correct that Samsung are not innovators. However, lets not drink our own bath water. I mean, what about floppy disk drives and televisions? At one time there was a whole generation of managers that touted television as a sterling example of U.S. dominant technology. And I had the personal experience of selling some of the first OEM floppy disk drives ever shipped. At the time it seemed we could do no wrong. Yet these markets AND technology slipped away. It used to be the conventional wisdom that the disk drive industry moved the target too often for Japan Inc. or Korea Inc. to hit it. But thats why Hyundai bought Maxtor. It let them get on the merry-go-round while it was still in full motion. Those are American designers guys. And frankly, Fujitsu , from a technology standpoint, are doing quite OK IMO. I think both companies bear watching as possible spoilers.
As to the future? I like the balance sheets of WDC, Seagate, and Quantum. Though in the latter I am a bit troubled by the rumour that they will seek $400mm in new debt. I think they have enough to weather the storm. As for Samsung, I don't think they have a short term chance at all and maybe no long term chance. They did it in monitors but HDD business is entirely different. Even before the whistle got blown in Korea they were hurting in a large way. I have had an insiders view of their disk drive operation and can say that they have mistepped at every turn. They have a long wait before they can try again IMO.
As for sub K systems ad nauseum there is still something I remain convinced of. There is going to be abolutely no surcease in the appetite for cheap, reliable, fast retrieve storage whether it comes from the desktop platform or the corp. server platform.
I like the group, and I love the psyche of a market that presents a buying opportunity like this. Quite frankly, not for any reason of wisdom, I was short when the s**t hit the fan. For personal reasons I sold nearly all my positions early last Summer. Am I lucky or what? <VBG> Move over guys. I am climbing back on shortly after the New Year.
Regards, |
