Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 159.74

+1.0%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3813)	12/14/1997 5:55:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) of 10921

Justa and all, I'm looking for some criticism of the following. I looked at P/Book and P/Sales ranges for 1996 for a subset of the key companies - the most recent pessimistic year for Semi Equipment companies. From those ranges, I extrapolated a price range for 1998 assuming that its outlook is equally pessimistic. A word of caution: Numbers are taken from Marketplayer and are believed to be current but I have not verified with Edgar or recent Earnings press releases. Highs have not been adjusted to recognize that continued earnings will add to Book during the next year. Essentially P/Book yields a "higher" low than P/Sales as well as a higher high than P/Sales would. KLIC $15 - $45 Buy at 20, 18, 15 AMAT $12 - $25 Buy at 16, 14, 12 LRCX $18 - $54 Buy at 24, 21, 18 SVGI $15 - $32 Buy at 20, 18, 15 ASYT $ 8 - $20 Buy at 12, 10, 8. This would suggest to me that the downside risk in KLIC, LRCX and SVGI are limited at this point. I would welcome any views - contrary or in support. Thanks Ian.

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