Hi Zeev.. how're you doing. I also was a bear on both the semi's and oils in Sept, though the oils held out a little longer through a rotation.
The last hurrah song is in the air and being echoed in many places for
varying combinations of reasons. Here's how the scenario is commonly being seen. Nearterm, a sucker rally end of year or beginning of year based on bond good news, cashflow, etc.. then a selloff that makes this horizontal trading range of 7500-8200 a broad top, triple top, whip cream top, whatever... it dosen't matter what you call it.
I'm getting low bond projection possibilities for June 98 as I've posted before, that coincides with some other's thoughts on low market numbers being realized in the same time frame.
I'll add one last piece FWIW, which I picked up on a short radio interview with Morgan's head of bond trading Sunday.. he feels bonds have hit their lows, Asia dosen't matter, that the heated US economy will inflate based on wages and benefits. In that he didn't catch the lower rate moves this sounds like sour grapes. I'm just adding this to the conversation. If the markets slide, bonds will hold or do better until commodities make a turn also... for that to happen, we'll have to see a turn in Asia, S. Korea and continuing strength in Europe. One last thought, purely speculative, is that when the US turns down from this wonderful 8-9 year run.. other areas of the globe should be ready to emerge from their problems.. Europeans with initial optimism of unification and Asia with banking and currency recoveries from dramatic export increases that curtail the US engine.
Jim |
