Hi Maya, sorry for the delay in responding. I went out of town for the weekend and left my laptop at home.
Why does Cube slide? It is not the cashflow and the contribution of the Asian
situation to the slide has to be limited.
First, I think that CUBE started sliding because of the perception that it was not getting big DVD wins, and the belief that the DVD market is taking off more slowly than expected. Then the tech stock market crashed, pulling Cube down further. Some are worried about the Chinese situation, and that may have affected Cube's price. Then, tech stocks fell some more......
While you all keep talking about the
Asian problem, I am not able to see how it is going to affect Cube directly?
My posts about China were meant to rebut negative comments by others concerning China. I agree that the Asian situation should have little effect on CUBE, because its sales are concentrated in China. Also, I like your analysis of the foundry/currency situation.
Nevertheless, Korea is in serious trouble. Companies are selling DRAMs below their variable cost. The sitaution is already disastrous for Koreans (don't expect many DVD sales there). It is unclear whether and how a continued disaster in Korea would affect other countries. It is something that has never really been tested in a similar economic situation.
Thant's the best I can do. I can make an educated guess about CUBE's stock price, but in the end, who really knows how the price will move. I think that CUBE has bottomed. If it does break below 16 or 17, it is new territory. For me, I'm thinking about buying more CUBE, but I have not done so yet.
BillyG |
