Actually, Ron, TA works fine in this market. Unfortunately, TA can't account for strongly negative fundamental news that is released. With ORCL, KLIC, INTC, etc., the news hasn't been good. TA says that if a support level is broken, the stock will likely fall to the next support level. For AMAT, that's around $22. For SMTC, it's at $39-41. SMTC closed slightly below its 200-day MA on Friday. We need to see a rebound above $42 or SMTC may fall below its support. It's not clear where the next support level is, but I'd say in the low-mid 30s. I hope it doesn't breakdown. I wish there were options trading on SMTC.
Long term outlook for these stocks is excellent, but the short term is clearly not as good. The chip-equip stocks appear to be close to a bottom, perhaps another 15-30%, depending upon the stock. SMTC needs some positive fundamental news to support the stock. If it falls below its support level, the technical sellers will drive the stock down to the 30s. This is an extremely sloppy market, and most stocks are being pounded much more than they deserve to be. But remember that in the long run these stocks go up, but in the short run they go up, down, up, down, down, up, etc. In SMTC's case, it goes up, up, up, down, down, down, up, up, up, up, up, up, down, down. Let's hope the market calms down. I suppose we'll see.
Todd |
