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Technology Stocks : General Lithography
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To: LLCF who wrote (722)12/14/1997 10:30:00 PM
From: Mason Barge   of 1305
 
<<do your think the current dram crash could be short lived because the firms cutting prices are doing so looking at local currencies >>

I don't know. However, part of the IMF conditions on the Korea bailout is refusal to make these kind of loans. The weak players are just going to have to be run out of business before the sector can be profitable long-term, and as long as Asian banks are willing to lend money to clearly over-capitalized industries, there's going to be DRAM excess capacity. But you'd have to think that the Asian way of doing business is going to get some modification after this (although the Japanese appear to be fighting change). So you'd have to think that the problem is going to ameliorate somewhat, ie, fewer banks willing to make loans to yet another chip fab, especially DRAM fabs. This shakeout would be good for the chip companies in the long run but would have to hurt the semi equipment industry at least to some degree.
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