Mason, Whoa, I'd like to discuss some of your points further. All is well until I get to #5. and your reference to DUV's life. There is no statement that I have seen anywhere which indicates that ANY alternative to DUV could come on line with a production model any sooner than 2003. IBM is just constructing a pilot/demo plant now to prove X Ray litho, no way will a production machine be ready in two years. The Japanese have been unable to make any headway there. Lucent wants 10 partners to help with E beam technology. None of this even addresses issues like throughput rates or clean room footprints. These are all good FUTURE alternatives but no chip manufacturer is going to wait even 3 years for an alternative to DUV. Look at what's happening with DRAMs. A 16 MB DRAM sells for under $3, that's less than the cost of manufacture. To be competitive and profitable, you need the efficiencies of producing a 16 MB DRAM, which sells for $15. You need new tools, like DUV, to produce that product. If you don't keep up, you must fall out of the race, ala bankruptcy.
A consultant once told me that this business is about Economics first, Marketing second, and Technology third. If you can't afford to build the modern fab today, your competition will. And then you will lose market share waiting for E beam or XRL. In short, its like poker with no betting limit. You got to pay to play.
Chalks |
