As a VVUS shareholder, the only significant issue is simple:
Does the product work for the average ED patient?
It was my understanding, from various cyber-postings and referenced medical studies, that it works very well. However, I have seen a few posts like the following from the Motley Fool Pfizer board. I realize that "you can't realistically believe a thing you read on any message board"; however, the poster strikes me as genuine, and if he had an anti-Muse agenda he would probably be posting here or on the MF Vivus board. His description of the re-fill scenario seems frighteningly consistent with the numbers thrown around in the CC. Anyway, there is now more than enough doubt sown in my mind, particularly with what I thought was a less than straightforward performance in the CC, that I have no thoughts on averaging down from my current basis of 24.5.
Good luck to us all.
Dave
Subject: Re: Pfizer
Date: Sun, Dec 14, 1997 01:34 EST
From: Hilm2
jbaker,
I am sorry if my post seemed that way. As a Urologist I am very happy that muse is around. It has brought numerous patients into my office with an interest in new treatment options for ED. In turn it has been quite profitable to have these patients return to my office for four office visits and charge them for trying muse. Quite profitable.
Actually, muse does work. But in my experience (about 10-15 patients per week) it works in about 20-30 % (30 % is quite generous). Of these few patients that it works in only a very few actually REFILL a prescription. That is VERY significant.
It seems to work best in patients that most likely have pschogenic impotence. What seems to happen is that after using muse once or twice, they regain some erectile function and no longer have a need for muse. It works for very few organic ED patients (in my experience).
The point I was trying to make was that as soon as Macrochem or Nexmed's topical applications become available Muse is going to be in big time trouble. If you don't think so then you must feel more comfotable about putting a supository down your urethra than merely rubbing a topical ointment on top of the glans of the penis. I could be wrong, but I suspect that most of my patients would agree with me.
Again, these are my views.
I think a pill is the easiest delivery system. If it works anywhere near reported then I believe it will be the biggest player in the ED market. That is the main point.
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