| | | As for Brinker going to "cash" after the 1987 cash and missing the rebound, I'm going to have to trust your memory on that point as I have no recollection of that happening. When I do remember is that the phrase "CAUGHT IN THE SWITCHES" applied well to Brinker's radio/newsletter calls of that time period from my viewpoint.
PETE,
Here's my firsthand experience on this matter.
I know from personal experience that Brinker had to have botched that timing call.
Here's why:
I took out a subscription to Hulbert's Financial Digest with the express purpose of studying the financial newsletters, so I could choose one or more of them to subscribe to.
I always compared the performance of different financial newsletters to the performance of the stock market itself, which Hulbert represented by the Wilshire 5000.
The time frame was the very early 1990's. I noticed that Brinker's Model Portfolios I and II substantially underperformed the market . (I didn't compare Portfolio III with the market, as it is theoretically a 50/50 portfolio).
It didn't seem to me that this substantial underperformance could have been due to poor mutual fund picks.
It was very striking to me, and I saw this in many of Hulbert's monthly issues. I wondered for a long time how Brinker could have underperformed the market so much from inception till the early 1990s. I knew something must have happened.
Turns out it was due to being out of the market while it was rising, after he got out due to his bad market timing call.
I think it is shameful that Brinker hides these things.
Why not be transparent and just admit that he blew it?
Moreover after he raised 60-65% cash prior to the year 2000 debacle, I have painful memories of being caught in the switches myself from trying to profit from Brinker's "counter-trend rally" short-term trade recommendations which I take responsibility for enhancing the pain by getting into those "Double Effect" ETF's. I don't think I'll be attempting that again, for sure.
I also took Brinker's advice given on the Special Subscriber's Bulletin. I purchased exactly what he recommended, the QQQ's. He never advised a leveraged ("double effect") ETF. Here's that brilliant timing call. I believe it was October 16, 2000, but don't quote me on the date :
"MARKETIMER is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 Index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2-4 months, and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established Nasdaq closing low point.
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We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading opportunity for MARKETIMER subscribers seeking potential short-term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this opportunity is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
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We recommend MARKETIMER subscribers with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also, we recommend subscribers with conservative investment objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity.
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MARKETIMER will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions, and, if necessary, in follow up bulletins.
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We recommend subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation act immediately."
Well, I "acted immediately" and bought QQQ
For market timing advise, I now regularly read Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing calls and recommendations in considering my own timing decisions and sometimes fund choices I'm not very familiar with Sy Harding, although I notice he writes for Forbes.com, so I'll be able to read what he says. He seems to be popular.
I'm more interested in reading what a guy named James Stack has to say. Unfortunately, you have to subscribe to his InvesTech newsletter to get his writings, and I'm not a subscriber. This is the guy that Bob Brinker many years ago used to call "The Montana Bear" ! He turns out to be a highly intelligent and astute market historian and investment advisor. And Dan Sullivan, a market timer who writes The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Actually, James Stack says he is not a market timer.
Happy (and successful) investing to you Boca_PETE
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