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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM)

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To: WTMHouston who wrote (9347)	12/15/1997 2:49:00 AM
From: Jacky AY	Read Replies (1) of 13456

You're right! Nothing to lose in this game. I'm a new player. Please put me down at 12/15/97 open for Short MSFT. Everyone knows MSFT is overvalue: a P/E of 50 for a slow growth rate of 20%. So fundamental analysis tells you not to keep this stock. However, Bill Gates has been beating earning estimates for a long period of time. Who remembers when was the last time MSFT missed earning? That's why the stock kept pushing up by ANALysts... Lately, MSFT encounters so much trouble in the likes of losing an anti-trust lawsuit, Japanese slow down, slow adoption of Windows CE, etc... Though MSFT claims that the anti-trust ruling won't affect its business plan. But, I do see DOJ pressing hard to stop rollout of Windoze 98 in its original format. Bill Gates will have to bow to the ruling and will be forced to separate Windoze and IE. The late development had caused confusion on the future plan of the company and the stock totally broke down since last week. I expect to see further downside of the stock since it's overdue a long time for a sizeable correction! In real world, shorting the market leaders are never good plays since you know fully well that they will come back later. This is only a short-term play.

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