Pete, here is the document that was compiled by several of Bob Brinker's long-time fans and critics. This was originally posted on Kirk Lindstrom's Suite101 Brinker boards (before they were destroyed).
If we go back in history, we see that the only time he went to 100% cash it was a mistake to do so. That was in January 1988 after the Black Monday market crash in October 1987.
That was a very costly mistake because the market climbed considerably before he finally got back to a fully invested asset allocation in January 1991.
Here is a complete roster of Brinker's asset allocation. I can personally vouch for all of it except 1982:
Pen-name Math Junkie wrote: “Some have raised questions about the allocation percentage from 1982 to 1987, so I have added a question mark to reflect this. As Steve did, I am retaining information from radio broadcasts, and it is labeled as such.”
* Aug 14, 1982….equities @ 100% (?)……....777
(Announced on local radio in New York he recommended being fully invested. He had been mildly bullish to bullish on NBR the previous April, and is said to have been recommending dollar cost averaging prior to August 14th.)
* Aug 21, 1987…..equities @ 100% ................2710
* Oct 19, 1987……equities @ 100%................1841
(Black Monday: Dow Down 695 or 25.6% From Top.)
* Jan. 1988…….equities @ Zero.…………...2015
(Went to 100% cash & told listeners he was
bearish after the market was 9.5% above
bottom, taking the brunt of most of the
bear decline.)
* Feb. 1989… equities @ 50%........................2342
(Market up 27% from the bottom.)
Nov 1989....equities @ 75%.........................2650
Feb 1990…. equities @ 40%..................2559
Mar.1990…..equities @ 50%..................2635
Apr. 1990….. equities @ 65%.................2687
May 1990…...equities @ 75%.................2656
July..1990…...equities @ 85%.................2840
July 18, 1990: Dow @ 3016....(Bull peak: up 50% since Jan. 1988)
* Oct. 12, 1990: Dow @ 2398
(Gulf War bear bottom. Down 20.5% since bull peak.Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 where Brinker went form 0% to 50%)
* Dec. 1990....equities @ 95%......2565
* Jan. 1991…. equities @ 100%..................2550
(Finally back to fully invested: Dow up 26.7% since going to 0% equities. Missed out on a large portion of market gains from when he went to 100% cash at 2015 in January 1988.) For the next nine years (January 1991 to January 2000), Brinker remained fully invested and made himself a legend. (Rode out the 19% selloff in 1998.)
* Jan. 2000… equities @ 40% ………Dow: 11, 122
(Lowered equities 60% within 5.1% of S&P top,
and recommended putting cash in money market funds .)
* Aug. 2000… equities @ 35% ...........Dow: 10,688
(65% now in cash reserves)
* Oct. 16, 2000…equities @ 35%......QQQ = $83
(Told subscribers to put 20% - 50% of (the 65%) cash reserves into QQQ for counter-trend rally.)
* Jan. 8, 2001…equities @35%....QQQ = $62.44
(Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves into QQQ.
Repeated same recommendation in February through May 2001 issues.) * June 8, 2001….QQQ = 47.35 (Placed on hold)
* Sept. 21, 2001…equities @ 35%...(Dow 8236 – hit 7926.93 intraday.)
* Oct. 2002…equities @ 35%...21% actually remaining in equities…Dow 8950
(Still recommended 35% equities, but P1 in newsletter is 21% equities (not counting QQQ trades apparently due to lack of rebalancing.)
* March 12, 2002…23% actual balance in equities …Dow 10,586
(DJIA +28.5% from 9/23/01 closing.
DJIA same level as August 2000 5% sell.)
* Oct 9, 2002…19% balance in equities…Dow 7286
(Cyclical low so far. QQQ = 20.06, down 75.8% from
10/16/00 buy at $83.)
* March 11, 2003: equities @ 100% …Dow 7568; S&P 807.48.
(Issued bulletin on website before open based on March 10th close. QQQ = 24.01; S&P500 = 807.48; SPY = 81.32. He ended all guidance for existing QQQ positions in March, 2003.)
* March 15, 2003….Announced 100% to weekend audience.
* March 17, 2003 (Monday)….Dow 8142
(QQQ = 26.60; S&P500 = 862.79; SPY = 86.78
typical buy levels for weekend and snail mail
followers who use mutual funds.)
* April 5, 2003….100%...(Recommended new equity purchases below S&P 810, and dollar cost averaging otherwise. Stopped mentioning existing QQQ positions in the newsletter text. It was never again accounted for in his reports of newsletter performance.)
Bob Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio stock allocations have remained 100% invested since March 10, 2003.
[This data was compiled by Math Junkie, Pete from Stamford, CT. MrGreenJeans, DanG. Kirk Lindstrom and SteveT.
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