Hey Guys! Just returned from the wilderness.. Man I'm sore
today... Can barely walk. Guess I'm a little out of shape!
Anything happen when I was gone??? ;)
A Couple observations, then I'm going to bed.
(1)The number of new posters over the last couple days is amazing!
People coming out of the woodwork. Probably those who bought high,
sold low, treaded water while the stock was floundering, then
bought at the open on Friday, so they wouldn't miss the move
back up, only to find themselves down again by close.
(2)Classic 'sucker's rally' chart pattern. No real rally can occur
until this Q3, Q4 business is behind the stock. (I was fooled at
the strength of the move, however.. I need to ponder what that
means for awhile. I think the shorts were a little spooked by
the stocks reaction to the downgrades... nothing, then up!)
(3) Weird stuff is happening again.. Expectations have been lowered,
BUT now everyone thinks that Iomega will beat these expectations.
(about 3/4 of the posts mentioned this) I think that the 'real'
expectations haven't moved as much as the published ones.
I just leave you with 2 questions:
(1) Why haven't any of the BIG three (Dell, Gateway, and Compaq)
offered ZIP as standard yet? (actually, I know the answer to
this one.. I just don't feel like posting it tonight)
(2) Where is the Jaz contribution to revenue? Still haven't seen much
of it. The way I see it, Q1 was Zip only, Q2 was Zip + Jaz, Q3
same as Q2. Q2 should have been a MONSTER quarter.. Don't think
in terms of 'Oh, now estimates are lowered, Iomega will easily
beat these!' Instead, think like this: 'revenue curve is flattening. What does this mean for future quarters. What will
contribute to revenue in the future?'
Anyway, good luck to all of you.. Again, nothing beats the education
I get from watching this stock (and this board)!
kp |
