Cisco,
As usual, you certainly have raised some compelling and poignant questions. I personally have indellibly imprinted to my memory the 8/19/97 Dow Jones News Release statement; "AccuMed Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer Leonard Prange said he is comfortable with a full-year 1997 revenue projection of $20 million to $25 million. He said the company should reach about break-even in the fourth quarter." And a few months prior to that, 4/22/97 CEO, Mr. Gombrich was also confident that; "The Company should show significant revenue growth for the remainder of 1997," noted Peter P. Gombrich, Chairman and CEO. "The ESP Culture System II product line acquisition completed at the beginning of March 1997 has performed better than planned since acquired by AccuMed. This product line, which produced 1996 revenues in excess of $16,000,000, will be a key profit and revenue contributor to the results of the Microbiology division.
We are comfortable with analysts' estimates that we will reach break-even or be profitable by the fourth quarter of this year."
The extraordinary conditions that Mr. Gombrich stated in the third quarter, ie., U.P.S.-strike, European Holidays, longer than expected delays by labratory review boards, third party manufacturer shipping delays, etc. should no longer be a factor in the fourth quarter. Again if we are to expect the order-delays (from the previous quarter) being picked up in this quarter along with the operating cost expense reductions AND "no charges" being taken in this quarter we "should" have no reason to expect anything different than previously instructed. I am expecting a strong positive earning surprise, but then again I am not the "sharpest pencil in the box."
On 9/18/97 Vector Securities upped their rating on AccuMed to a buy from attractive and has not made any changes to the contrary. They have however made a substantial change in their outright ownership of AccuMed stock held in their trading volume amount of stock. Currently for the close of November they are listed as being the 23 largest holder of stock by market makers, holding a paltry 2,100 shares. Hopefully they have been buying in the first two weeks of December. Commonwealth Associates with their close ties to AccuMed is still listed as the third largest volume holder behind Night Securities and Mayer & Schweitzer respectively. Tucker Anthony is listed at the close of November as being the 6th largest holder of ACMI shares. They along with others had dramatically decreased their volume holdings from the September to the close of November dates indicated. Obviously with the recent past two weeks of trading there could have been a major reshuffling of these positions one way or another. Obviously someone or some entity had to be buying the supply of shares that had been glutting the market. As of now it looks like Night Securities has picked up the baton and is running the lead for AccuMed. Have you heard of any analyst rating put out by them?
It seems strange that Commonwealth Associates at least is being quiet about 4th Q earnings. Again it seems like Vector Securities has lost interest in AccuMed, unless they are buying with two hands at these levels.
AccuMed did post 1996 4th Q numbers in February of "97 so unless they have some really exciting news that they want the markets to hear it appears they will do the same. It would seem natural to assume that with the new emphasis on share-holder relations we would receive some type of "whisper" number in January. Have your teachers ever instructed you what happens when you assume something?
Anyone else out there have any input?
Frank
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