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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
ORCL 204.96+4.0%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: MJR who wrote (4490)12/15/1997 4:45:00 PM
From: nanu swamy  Read Replies (3) of 19080
 
> I just backed up the truck and loaded up on shares of ORCL. At this
> price it seems like a great deal and am hoping to see 26 relatively
> soon... any thoughts if I'm being realistic or did I just throw my
> money away

With the dust settling after the downgrades, most of the MM's seem
to be moving with the DOW. If the DOW goes up you find more
MM's buying and if the DOW goes down more MM's dump their holdings.
Sometimes the MM's do not play by this 'implicit rule' and move
the price against the DOW. This is usually done with large volumes.
The guys on Instinet (INCA) usually try to enforce some sort of
orderly behavior when the price and dow move in opposite directions.
But during upgrades/downgrades the folks on INCA are powerless
and during normal days like today they act like "traffic cops" not
letting the dow and the stock price move out of sync.

My gut feeling is that ORCL moves by about 3/4th point for every 100
point change in the DOW under normal circumstances. So to see ORCL
at 26 the DOW should be consistently above the 8200 level...

To add something which may seem preposterous to some, I think that
the DOW is right now under computer control and is being held
"artificially high" to keep consumer confidence up. If the Fed stops
pumping money into the market, the DOW would collapse like a rock and
so would all big cap stocks...

(most of my thoughts have been influenced by a book which I have been
reading which describes how the Fed controls the economy)
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