Jacob - "I don't think the IMF will let them do it." (allow Korea to buy more semi-equip). Agreed, but do we really care? (he says selfishly):
I think that the only thing we care about for the next year is that the the largest consumer economies don't go in the tank. As long as the US and Europe continue to grow, then demand for semiconductors will go up substantially, and somebody (Taiwan, Japan, Europe, US, ...? ) will have to build new plants starting sometime later this year. As a US semi-equip manufacturer owner, I would prefer it to be outside Japan since Japanese companies preferentially buy from Japanese semi-equip manufacturers. And, I suspect that it will be the the US and Taiwan that take up the slack to add manufacturing capacity, since Japan is still having problems.
Clark
PS In the short run (next six months) there is likely to be a slow down at the semi-equip makers for two reasons - Glut of DRAM capacity, and the general macro-economic uncertainty will almost certainly cause companies to put off really big capital expenditures. But in 6 months the end of the DRAM glut should be apparent (it is estimated to be over in late '98 or early '99), and the uncertainty (will Korea live up to its IMF agreements? will Japan, (China, Taiwan, ...), follow Korea?) should be mostly over. All this assumes we don't dominoe into a world wide recession. |
