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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.12-0.5%Oct 31 5:00 PM EST
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geewiz
To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (107593)9/18/2014 1:24:58 PM
From: Elroy Jetson1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 217516
 
Putin is angry, scared, trapped and realizing how vulnerable he/Russia is. They no longer have the isolated "self-sufficient" military supply chain of the Soviet Union. A trapped and scared animal is dangerous indeed. Putin has a lot of very bad choices. He's a dictator of sorts, but one wrong move and he's out of step with the Oligarchs and the Russian public.

Just look at Putin's problems:

1.) Europe's response to Putin's military action and war threats was appointing Poland's PM John Tusk the President of the European Council. Tusk is fanatically anti-Putin, anti-Russian and pro-military response and building up NATO forces in Europe's eastern states. Tusk's appointment was the exact opposite of what Putin had expected and hoped for.

2.) Since the Wall came down and Poland joined NATO, one of Russia's two major naval bases became trapped inside Poland and Russians essentially need Polish permission to visit it. Potentially losing their other naval base in Crimea caused a fairly predictable Russian response, which is why Europe and everyone else was initially pretty quiet about Crimea. But other parts of Ukraine and Europe is a different deal;

3.) More than 1/3 of Russia's defense industry is located in Ukraine. Rebuilding the metallurgical capability lost to Ukraine will not be easy or quick;

4.) Without non-Ukraine western exports a lot of parts for Russia's defense infrastructure are unobtainable, so Putin has ordered a crash program with China;

5.) Western sanctions are quickly hurting Russia's oil sector, but even worse are falling oil prices. Cutting-off imported food has already increased Russia's already high inflation rate and made for some unhappy influential citizens behind the stoic faces shopping at Azbuka Vkusa;

6.) Putin is threatening the leaders of his "southern Ukraines" like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan where the US has been very active, now realizing he is on-track to lose all of Russia's marbles.

Two days ago the Danish-owned "Moscow Times", the largest English-language newspaper in Russia, published this article laying-out Putin's options for retaliating against Western sanctions. All of Putin's potential responses either shoot Russia in the head or threaten Russian security against terrorist threats from their Muslim population. The article reads serious, but is as tongue in cheek as a very influential newspaper published in Russia can be under current circumstances. It's well worth a read.

themoscowtimes.com
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