<< I don't care what happens to DRAM at all. At these prices, a fool can buy and make money over the next year >>
I'm not sure the worst is over yet! I will have to wait and see DRAM's price to start recovery before we know ALSC's down turn is over. To be honest with you, I think ALSC has a real tough time to survive at these price levels. If the DRAM, Flesh mamory and SRAM's prices do not recover significantly in next 6 month, I will have to say that Alliance will have trouble to stay as an ongoing concern. But the problem is that, at this point we see no sign that these prices will recover soon, because of the SE-Asia currency crisis. I would think that South Korea, Taiwen, Sigarpore and Hong Kong will try to use their cheaper currencies to dump as much memory chips as possible in order to pull themselves out of the crisis.
Look at MU's earning figure, last qtr they made 30 cents. This qtr only 4 cents. They say it was caused by severe ASP drops. What does that translate to ALSC's earnings?
Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to scare any of you, but simply put up my view on the situation. I try not to be too emotional on my stocks. As soon as I recognize that the worst is still ahead of me, I will dump my shares even if at a severe loss. On the other hand, if I see the worst is over, I will return to these stocks BIG TIME!
Good luck!
MB |
