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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House)

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To: rupert1 who wrote (3151)12/15/1997 11:19:00 PM
From: WBendus  Read Replies (1) of 6980
 
Vepoc,

At Syracuse University we have Market Trax data and news feeds in a finance center donated by Ballentine Asset Management. One of the services that we receive there is analyst reports, pretty much in full detail. The analyst at AG Edwards actually commented:

"Routers - (22% of total sales las quarter) So far in the quarterthe company's routhing business is tracking as expected. The company has not seen any negative impact on its existing routing business from their soon to be released Accelar routing switches (a.k.a. Layer 3 swithches) nor have they changed their guidance going forward with respect to the anticipated demand for their older routing products. If anything, we would not be surprised to see the company make a number of bullish comments about their new Accelar line when they announce results in the third week of January. We believe that the company will be able to show a slight sequential uptick in routing revenues as the comp0any makes one final push in this area before turning their attention to their new Accelar products. As we look into the March quarter we believe that the company will experience "normal" seasonal slowdown in the routing area."


As for the Motley Fool piece, it has been know that there was going to be a slow down in router growth as gigabit ethernet begins to come on-line. I was also reading this morning an analyst industry review (can't remember whose) and the analyst comented that they thought GE was going to outsell ATM in the LAN by 3:1. He originally thought that it would pan out to be about 2:1. While router growth may be disappointing, there is the strong prospects that GE is going to bring. ("BAY has already started to take orders for the new Accelar product as of December 1 that will begin shipping this week for revenues in this quarter." per AG Edwards Analyst)

Motley Fool piece is troubling but none the less there have been two upgrades by analysts over the past couple of weeks, AG Edwards and First Albany. Both of these firms are smaller regional firms but I don't know if that necessarily precludes them from making well informed investment ratings.

If router growth is slowing so bad, then this also means bigger trouble for CSCO holders. Todays recovery from the lows in CSCO would seem to indicate that the institutions are not convinced that there is temendous trouble. I might tend to disagree but router trouble will likely be felt going into the summer of '98 as GE products really start to heat up.

Wayde.
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