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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (54327)10/7/2014 1:19:41 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris1 Recommendation

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My top (>2%) positions in no particular order: MGDDY, JPM, MHNC, DRAGF, BKLN, LMCA, CF, BRKB, WDC, SPND, MKL, GLW.
In:
Out:

Fixed income: ~16%
Cash: ~17%

New positions: AGCO
Positions increased: PGN, WLP, TESB.BE
Positions reduced: TPCA, INGR
Positions eliminated: JNJ, YARIY
Flip-flop: SFTBY

With the market volatility, I did some housecleaning and some buying.

Flip flopped SFTBY as BABA speculation. Came out ahead a bit.

Sold JNJ on valuation. Sold YARIY - with CF rumours and prospective CEO deciding not to take the position, I think the company is not being managed well (at all? ;)). I would rather not hold position.

Reduced TPCA - Atlantic City casino situation is pretty bad and it's not clear if TPCA businesses elsewhere outweigh the AC issues. Stock is holding up, but I wonder if market does not see the issues yet.
Reduced INGR - similarly to TPCA, it seems that sweetener market is going through tough pricing. It's not clear if it will turn anytime soon and I think market is overoptimistic on INGR.

Added PGN on price drop. Added WLP - still cheap. Added TESB.BE even though it will be going through rights offering.

Bought a position in AGCO. I might be too early on agri cycle, but I like AGCO and DE. Bought AGCO this time to diversify from DE. AGCO is possibly cheaper, although they have their financing off balance sheet, which makes it a bit more opaque too. Also AGCO is more of international bet compared to DE. OTOH, it does not have construction segment, which might counter-cycle DE a bit. Anyway, both companies look OK here and will look even more attractive if they continue dropping.
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