Record 200-day moving average due for a fall....
I find it interesting how some rely upon the 200 DMA, while others use the 260 DMA. Personally, I tend to think the 260 makes more sense, given it represents the number of week days in the year.
Using the 260 DMA, it suggests that SPX is heading for 1875 area
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
But I also like to use weekly and monthly charts, but I've always wonder what MA is most reflective.. Of course, the default is 200 (day, week.. and even month).. But it causes me to wonder as to why 200, and not some other number?
I've head some people use the 100 week MA, but I'm not as to what the rationale is behind it. Just arbitrary?
But it does yield some interesting historical results.
SPX weekly chart with 52 week MA and 100 Week MA:
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
It seems to indicate the SPX can hit 1900 and not be in violation of the overall uptrend. In fact, it would technically go to 1700 and remain in uptrend on a weekly basis.
So.. I like to look out for much longer, stronger, TA trends, and I know I've posted the Quarterly charts here before. And using candlesticks helps to provide some historical indications when a long-term trend is reversing.. For the SPX, historically speaking, every time a Black Candle occurs on the quarterly chart, it signals a major reversal and significant downtrend, and predicts at least a 2 year Bear market approaching.
SPX is now putting in a Black Candle on the Quarterly, and the peak and down slope of the MACD confirms. And this generally suggests that a move to the 20 Quarter MA is in order, which is down around 1500.
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
And if one inputs the RUT in the above charts, it's even uglier.
Hawk |
