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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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From: POKERSAM10/9/2014 8:04:28 AM
6 Recommendations

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dhellman
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heh heh - Boy a wave two in a bear move gets the bulls all frothy every time. That is the psychology of a wave two.
The perma bulls loosen up and start snorting and stomping thinking that the scare is over. The bear is gone and they can get back to higher highs. Then wave three down hits them in the head and they become very quiet and subdued again as the wave three rolls over them.
It never fails. During the cyclical bear markets beginning in 2000 and again beginning in 2007 the perma bulls called a bottom every time there was a wave two. Pick your favorite perma bull and go back and look at the record found in his posts. It is an interesting look into the mind of the perma bull.
Of course you can reverse all of this and apply it all to the perma bear just as clearly and reliably.
So it is a real task for a consistently successful short term trader to be neither perma bull or bear. It takes effort to set aside human nature and be objective when all around you are driven by emotion.
The psychology of every wave in the basic 8 wave pattern of EWP is different. They are consistent and predictable. That is what makes EWP such a great tool for the prediction of the future.

As I have explained many times before, there are at the present time two very different long term possibilities. One I call the Super Bear and the other I call the Super Bull. The advance from 666 in 09 could be a new secular bull market. The advance from 666 in 09 could be the B wave of the secular bear market that began in 2000. This would mean another cyclical bear market is coming to complete the fourth secular bear market since 1871.

From a strictly Elliott Wave perspective both of these possibilities exist at the present time. There are no rule breaks in either count. The satisfaction of guidelines is about equal in both counts. The question of which has the better look is highly subjective as it varies in the eye of the beholder. Since ones interpretation of "the look" is naturally affected by the bias of the beholder it is not a very reliable guide. IMO any Elliottician who would deny that the two possibilities exist at the present time is uneducated or dishonest and is blinded by his bias. I can count the waves from 666 in 09 to the present as impulsive or corrective in equally indisputable fashion.

That will change. The depth of a correction will validate one count and invalidate (or make impossible) the other. The last time there was an opportunity for this all important correction to take place was about 7 months ago at 1883. We now have another opportunity at 2019. A top and major correction cannot occur just anytime. The wave structure must allow for it. The wave structure allows for it now. Will it happen this time? We will see.

To my eye the Super Bear looks better so that is the count I use in my day to day analysis and trading. I could just as easily use the Super Bull count. On a short term basis only the degree of the labels are different.

This is for certain. The perma bears will growl and the perma bulls will snort. Me, I will try to just count the waves correctly and let the market decide. I am a short term trader. I will do just fine no matter what happens long term.

Good Trades to all who took the time to read this. heh heh
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