I guess you are valuing APA and DVN based on p/book or something similar. Based on earnings they both are not cheap. I guess I never learned to value E&Ps the way you guys do. ;) I'd buy CVX if it drops quite a bit.
EMN is somewhat cheap, but their D/E is high and FCF if nonexistent.
BASFY is not really cheap, especially if you take into account their oil escapades in Russia. I won't consider it above $70.
RYCEY is very tough to value IMHO. For me it's expensive. You really have to make a lot of adjustments to reported numbers to consider it "cheap".
UTX is not cheap either.
I would like to sell like you do. But I don't find what to sell. My positions unlike yours are either non-speculative (i.e. hold forever more or less) or speculative but cheap (PGN mostly). So I sold tiny bit recently, but I am still at ~18% cash, 16% bonds. My portfolio is currently losing value at approximately the same rate as SP500, which means that stocks in it are dropping about 1.3 times more than SP500. I guess that means that I'll see cheap buys soon. ;)
Currently, for me AGCO, DE, BAMXY are cheap. I might also buy BRKB if it drops, perhaps TPRE, GLRE, perhaps WLP. I don't see much else to buy right now.
I think that's the risk of this market. Momentum/growth guys are fleeing. Value guys are not stepping in, since most companies are expensive or at least fairly valued. We can have another 10% to 20% down... or not. :) I think you'll be right to have sold if you manage to get back in lower.
Disclosure: I own positions in AGCO, DE, BAMXY, BRKB, TPRE, GLRE, WLP, CVX. I have token position in BASFY I think. |
