Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 157.09

-1.7%

Dec 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3842)	12/16/1997 3:22:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) of 10921

Teri, >Somebody needs to slap me hard or something because I am more bearish than I've ever been on these stocks, and I don't want to be, partly because I still own alot of them. AMAT would have us believe that the outlook is relatively rosy. I have a difficult time believing that when almost nobody is making money on DRAMs and even INTC isn't short of capacity. < IMO, unless your are terrifically margined, I believe that the upside for amat verses the downside is far greater in the long run. I had a friend today who said to me today, "so what if the price goes down $10 from where it is now when I have the potential for a $100 in two -three years." He makes a lot of since. We all know that AMAT is an excellent price and trying to time it is very difficult. I have now problem in recommending amat at these levels even if it would go down to $18 since it would be a temporary loss if we hold the stock. I define temporary as 6-18 months down the road. Kumar, Tito and Big Buck and this site have always assumed that amat will double in 2-3 years. IMO, I agree with their assumption. However, we must be patient and wait for amat to come to us. Just remember back in July '96 those of us who purchased the anywhere from $21.875-36 now have a postsplit price at $10.9375-$18.00. If my recall is correct it was the mutual funds and big boys who were late then when they got into the stock taking us along to new heights as AMAT gained new heights. Don't we see the same happening again? What do you think? Just my opinion. Paul V.

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