I think FERO is cheap here, but it might stay this way for a little longer. Ithink WFR is even cheaper and it may go even lower.
There are a number of reasons I think we will sink in January (and I am now saying early January since the market, as usual, did not listen to me and started the rally a day an a half before the due date I set (it was not supposed to start this year end rally until 2:00 PM tomorrow, what do these guys in New York thing they are, disobeying orders like that <VBG>).
The main reason is the instability in the rim. That could have been solved if Japan did something serious about stimulating final demand within Japan, but their package ids a tepid $7 Bill and over too long a period, not enough to prevent, IMHO, at least one majoe chaebols in Korea to fold, and that should take some of the excess capacity in the world off line. This process will reverberate in the high techs and the bank sector firat and, IMO, pull the rest of the market down. If simultaneoiusly we get more sales from the rim of our long term bonds, that could bring interest rates back above 6.25 or higher (not much) to add fuel to the decline.
Zeev |
