Tom,
I don't do shorts. I'm waiting for an entry point on this stock. This is a good growth stock, but even if you love a stock, you got to get in at a price that will maximize your return. I'm just trying to help everyone on the thread to find a reasonable price for this cyclical stock.
I hate to see individual investors lose because misleading projections, wrong strategies, insiders who take advantage of the information, and above all, an ATML IR department that's elusive in answering straight questions.
I deem the stock fundamentally sound if the estimates can be met, and I would suggest everyone to jump into ATML if that's the case. But in the present situation, especially when you consider the insiders sold in 22-23 range the end of last month, and the Nov. btb is down a bit, the Dec. trend is unclear according to IR, I think you'll agree with me that longs are in for 3 more weeks of punishment and jerky ride.
By the way, if I'm short, I'll cover now, rather than try to chase those extra points. ATML is neither a good short target now, there're other stocks with higher PE ratio and in deep trouble. Also, I don't think my posts here are so powerful to move the markets.
There're many people on this thread showing confidence in the stock. I'm posting the negative side of the story so people can keep a more balanced mind when they invest in ATML. I think that's helping people.
Look, I'm not trying to be hostile. All I'm saying it's that if you're long, you should protect yourself with puts; if you intend to long, wait 3-4wks until Jan.15, when the earning is out and the picture is clearer. Along the way of waiting, ATMLers might see 10-15. I stated the reasoning already, which is supported by the avarage Q earning at 0.30 in the last 2q and the coming q, and the usual bottom PE of 8 for semi stocks during compression.
Technically, ATML broke the low that's established two years ago, and the trendline is not good. Personally, I'll go long if the higher end of my projection is touched.
ATML is a growth stock in a very cyclical business, for these kind of stocks, the catch of bottom is very critical, at least for me.
So, if you're long and paid a higher price, consider puts. If you're not in yet, think about the risk and you might agree with me.
Good luck for your investing!
Frank |
