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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 174.21

+6.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Steve 667 who wrote (2127)	12/16/1997 4:36:00 PM
From: JJB	Read Replies (2) of 60323

>>What percentage, for example, of Konica or Canon Sales are in Asia vs. the rest of the world?<< My research shows that the world viewed from Japan, markets split evenly into thirds. Japan and the rest of Asia 1/3 US and the Americas 1/3 Europe (EC), Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa 1/3. Japan sales are over 50% of Asian sales tend to fast acquirers of new technology (recover R& D cost). Rest of markets has high sales costs reflecting fragmented nature. EC countries are 80% of Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Tend to be closer to Japanese (high value) customers. Currently high cost due to fragmented (supposedly getting better) markets. Canada and US are over 95% of sales in Americas. Sales tend to be commodity price level purchasers where factory fixed costs are recovered through incremental sales. This mass market is so important that if there is a US based patent conflict a product may never be developed even if it is clear in other markets. Basically none of the key markets are in trouble. Japan may still be in its malaise but that has not stopped DV (digital video) camcorders and APS film cameras from outselling analog camcorders and 35mm film cameras at substantially higher price points. The real problem with digital still cameras is for the most part they are not as good as the silver halide (film) technology they are outplacing. This is not only in resolution but also in color accuracy. Intel's CMOS imager tied to post processing on a Pentium is definitely a step backwards. Manufactures are caught in a product cycle upmanship (fabulous digital camera de jour) that is causing a blood bath. This should be the year where digital cameras overcome a lot of technical issues and become mainstream. Moore's law is being helped along by a 50% reduction in costs based on currency alone over the last 2 years. As to the stock price maybe TA is a form of mass hypnosis. What I don't get is with 50% stock held by insiders, 25% +- (with secondary) held by Seagate, and from what has been posted 5 - 10% institutional holding, where are shares coming from that have been traded. I beginning to think here comes another naked short situation that NASDAQ or SEC is going to do nothing about. jjb

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