Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: NYBellBoy who wrote (8475)	12/16/1997 4:54:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (1) of 9285

<<I seem to find the right companies to short at the wrong time.>> Tell me about it! My biggest mistake for 1997 was getting in too early on Yahoo. I think that this is an important lesson about shorting as we go into 1998. I've noticed that I get much better results shorting stocks where problems with the business or hints of fraud have already surfaced - even if I start shorting them long after they've had steep declines off their all-time highs (ZITL was a great short at 20 a share, AVNT was a great short in the low 20s, etc.) Momentum stocks like Yahoo are tough. They're incredibly attractive to short-sellers because of the insane valuations relative to fundamentals, but they can continue moving higher until some hard evidence comes in that can peg the valuation fairly. Now that I've commited, Im going to stick it out with YHOO and AOL, but I think that in the future...I'm going to throw more (short) money at the ZONAs, TRBOs, ZITLs and AVNTs and whenever I see a tempting momentum stock, I'll either buy a few puts or just wait on the sidelines until more information becomes available.

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