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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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To: Kirk © who wrote (2276)	11/18/2014 10:38:05 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 26738

Good Morning Kirk, Over the last two years you and I have been wondering how great an impact the shale oil growth and wealth creation has prevented the USA from entering a recession (that was so boldly predicted by ecri and the wli numbers. I must admit that I never saw the resulting decline in crude commodity prices. Since we are close to the same age,each and every recession that has gripped the world always came at the end of an oil price explosion. Wondering if this crude war / surplus will be the fuel that finally gets the global expansion back to solid growth. Just what are the manufacturing savings and personal consumption expansion capabilities of a world with energy costs collapsing by 40 - 50 percent? Markets always over shoot - crude should not be immune from this. Could it could be the "White Swann " event that no one saw coming? Is it one of those generational moments where indexes break out and defy the gravity of rolling over oscillators - certainly an event many people now observe. Just what is the power of cheap energy on a global basis? In the past, price explosions in crude always marked the coming of economic recession - it is logical that the opposite may well be true? I did not see this huge impact coming - but it might be unfolding before our eyes. Bob

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