Bridging weather and climate Message Board

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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate

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From: weatherguru	11/19/2014 10:04:09 PM
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I limit my posts on other boards, but I like to ramble about weather. If it's weather-as-usual, I limit my discussions. But I see an interesting event next week (potential cut-off low). I live in Florida, so east coast U.S. is my bias. Big low pressure coming out of Texas and gulf coast states this Sunday (Nov-23) with increase in solar activity (always happens around a Bradley Date! I don't know why.). Baroclinic set-up on back edge of high pressure system. Good thunderstorms developing from Tulsa to Houston. Rain/thunderstorms/warm-up for SE US. Low travels up into Great Lakes; a quick thaw for them. Sub-average cold will quickly return and last through end of the month as the low moves into Canada. I'm interested in what follows this low (heading into Thanksgiving on Nov 27). This could set the stage for a cold front to plummet down to Gulf Coast states and form a cut-off low tracking along the Gulf Coast. Cut-off lows are a bit chaotic. As the low clashes/entrains with the stubborn cold air mass, there could be severe weather from Houston to Memphis to Panama City ahead of the front. If it doesn't cut-off, then a freeze for Houston to Jacksonville for a couple of nights next week. Hmmm. As you can see, I'm playing the "beyond the weather forecast" by looking a week+ in advance. The potential cut-off low is what interests me. This can wreak havoc on extended forecasts by not moving as fast as models want them to. We'll see; I'm not a know-it-all :)

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