Tom,
Re : Weekly new high, new low statistics - I have saved mails from my friend about this indicator, incl his brief explanations on it.
Last time the ratio went extremely low (very bullish) was Nov 1990.
Last time the ratio went extremely high (above 5.0, very bearish) was Mar 1994, Jul 1990. I can forward those mails to you so you can determine if it makes sense.
Re: Murphy. Received a courtesy mail on the latest update (12/14) from a reader on this thread. (thank you, Tony). I can forward that to you too.
Re: list of investment grade stocks. I am happy to have some stocks that are not the beaten down types, but top tier that has super track records year after year - they occasionally go on sale, but never firesale. I dont mind bottom fishing, but I firmly believe there are companies will never get down to the bottom, but still offer super return with minimal risk, i.e. little protection is needed, if one can buy it at 25-35% discount from recent high. I dont have 20 names either.
My favorites in this category : MSFT, GE, TRV, PFE,
These are stocks to hold year after year after year with minimal attn needed. One can do some ratio writes to enhance return, but it would better to leave them alone.
then there are some require attn : CSCO, CPQ, DELL, INTC,
These are stocks still can be held year after year, but need to access situation almost every quarter. Plenty of short calls/puts opportunities in this group.
then there are stocks that should only be held thru one upcycle :
AMAT, NVLS, ALTR, BMCS, QCOM
regards,
nancy
p.s. have you bought puts on AMAT today for your future long protection ?
|
