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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices
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To: Todd J. who wrote (288)12/16/1997 7:14:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce  Read Replies (1) of 8010
 
re: Y2K simplified

My experience is that if I share stories from North's site, no one will take me seriously. There are alot of rumors and hype among the "documentation".

I have had better success in getting people to take this issue seriously by focusing on a couple areas that are easier to understand and thus more difficult to discount. Two key areas:

* International banking will have severe problems when compliant USA banks want to make transactions with non-compliant foreign banks. We live in a global economy with international banking transactions supporting trading. Shutdown of the money flow will make today's Asia crisis look insignificant.

* The USA government isn't going to make it on time. The IRS situation is hopeless, and general Treasury Department compliance is not at all guaranteed. Other governments are in the same boat. So the dollar is more likely to devalue against commodities rather than international currencies.

You can "prove" Y2K is a big deal by just focusing on these two points; even if everything else is pure hype.

The above two areas should generate at least a big market crash. Lost market efficiencies could push the price of commodities way up as well. No one knows the timing of the trigger event. My guess is mid 1999.
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