Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 152.16

+6.7%

3:49 PM EST

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (3883)	12/16/1997 8:48:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (4) of 10921

Yes, how easy to say one was a long term investor in these stocks at the top. I heard it over and over again. I never bought AMAT after it exceeded $21 ($15 average cost basis) per share post-split until it was $32 on the round trip back to $25 this past week and did not have any regrets throughout the summer. When I was wandering through the AMAT thread one day this summer, I heard that AMAT said its goal was to be a $15b company by 2002. After a call to AMAT, it turned out that what was heard was quite a bit different than what was meant by management. I posted that finding. I knew then that Greenspan had found a home for "irrational exuberance" on the AMAT thread. Did I sell? No. Why? Because I am a long term investor. Do I regret it? No. I don't think I will be too hard on myself for anticipating a 50% decline from the top because of an exogenous event that no one fully appreciated, especially from an emotional point of view. I try to invest like a cornerback who best asset is a short term memory problem: if I get burned, I might as well gather the lessons and forget about it and move on to the next defensive series because they are going to be throwing my way for sure now. My only regret is that I did not trade the stock with some shares on the way up so as to profit if not at least offset any paper losses that might be waiting for me on the other end of the emotional spectrum. It looks like the others on this thread agree to an extent as some have now adopted long term trading strategies based on historical valuation criteria. Now some are thinking of selling right when those limits are reached and not riding out the cycle. I wonder if the human psyche is such that it is just as easy to say that now as it is to say one is a long term investor while riding the wave to the top and beyond? I wonder if people would then be kicking themselves for getting out too early at those valuation points if the cycle continued without them holding shares? No criticism itended here. I am thinking out loud in an effort to help people think through the lessons they may have learned. But I am an optimist. I view this whole year as a trial run. Doesn't anybody else? This sector will turn around soon enough and the good thing coming from this experience is that we should be all that much stronger and smarter from the lessons we have learned. Unless that conerback idea carries over to forgetting the really important lessons we have learned. God, I hope not.

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