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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 233.46-5.9%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3863)12/16/1997 9:31:00 PM
From: Paul V.  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Teri,
>If the same thing were to happen again, we'd re-visit $10.9375 - $18.00, and the number
of Mutual Funds owning AMAT would probably plunge from the current 389 (from
today's IBD). Then after alot of weeping and bloodshed, the Mutual Funds would come
back cautiously at first, then pile in. From looking at the 389 figure, I'd say we're more
towards the "pile in" phase than the "blood in the streets" phase.<

As either Tito or Kumar and I have previously posted a $20 amat price would be equivelant to the 63% drop to $21.875 we had in 1996. With the funds jumping on board so quickly this time, I honestly do not believe that they would be jumping on board only to jump overboard quickly. Just as we had a selloff at $108 when the BTB was up over the O.70 in September'96 with 1.07, as revised 1.09, the funds can equally rationalize any upgrade on the BTB against any improvement over the 0.78 October'96 BTB figure. The BTB figures will be out in the next three days. With the funds into amat at the 389 figure it will be interesting as to how they justify their future upgrades.:)

Thanks for you response, Teri.

PS AMAT using the DW procedure did have an $3 upside reversal today when it exceeded $29 from the low of $26. Hopefully, Big Bucks call was correct in his call when he bought at $26.50 which I believe he thought may be 10% from the bottom.

Paul V.
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