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Politics : Politics of Energy

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (61621)12/4/2014 6:21:12 PM
From: Brumar892 Recommendations

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TOBS adjustments should be minor, but they're not.

But by their own admittance, TOBS adjustments should only account for about 0.2C.
notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com

USHCN2 bumped all Oklahoma temperatures up by 0.8 degrees between 1996 and 1998 due to claimed TOBS adjustments.



This is incredible to begin with, but particularly spectacular because they report no changes in temperature observation time, for any station in Oklahoma after 1994. The adjustment appears to be 100% fraudulent.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/station.history.Z

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/07/smoking-gun-that-tobs-adjustments-are-garbage/

It’s Not The TOBS

Posted on October 21, 2014 by stevengoddard

Someone suggested that the divergence between measured US temperatures and NCDC published US temperatures is due to Time Of Observation Bias.

I tested that out by comparing only versus stations which took morning or night readings on July 15, 1936. These stations should be biased cold in the 1930s, and produce more warming than the full set of stations. It doesn’t make much difference. The frequency of 90 degree days is still very low in 2014.



There is still a hockey stick of divergence between the measured and reported US temperatures.



Over the last 20 years, the TOBS adjustment should be a downwards adjustment. The 1936 afternoon stations are warming faster than the 1936 morning stations. USHCN TOBS adjustments do the exact opposite and make the problem worse.



TOBS does not account for the discrepancy between measured and reported US temperatures. Here is the list of morning/night stations
........
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/21/its-not-the-tobs/#more-117976

Another Smoking Gun That TOBS Is Crap
Posted on July 16, 2014 by stevengoddard

The graph below organizes US HCN stations into two groups. Those that took morning readings on July 15, 1936 and those which took afternoon readings on that date.

Both groups show identical downward trends in US maximum summer temperatures since 1910. TOBS has little or no effect on the temperature, and is simply another excuse to cool the past and turn a long term cooling trend into a warming trend.



Putting The TOBS Scam To Bed
Posted on July 16, 2014 by stevengoddard

One of the funnier claims about TOBS is that the frequency of 100 degree temperatures in the 1930's was due to double counting at stations which reset their thermometers in the afternoon.

I put that to the test by identifying all of the stations which reset their thermometers at times other than between 2PM and 8PM on July 15, 1936, and calculating the frequency of 100 degree temperatures at those 329 stations. The result is essential identical as I get for all stations. There is no evidence of double counting. The 1930s were much hotter.



Same is true for 90 degree days. The 1930s were much hotter. No one can claim that these stations reported maximum temperatures too high due to TOBS.



Summer maximum temperatures at those same stations were much hotter in the 1930s, and have been declining for over 100 years, showing once again that the claims about TOBS strongly affecting maximum temperatures are nonsense.



At some point it will become obvious to everyone that the USHCN temperature adjustments which reverse the long term cooling trend in the US, are bogus and junk science.

.......
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