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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 71.75

-0.5%

Nov 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: sepku who wrote (10986)	12/16/1997 10:03:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) of 77397

Style, You win... You're a much better than I and you know so much more about the networking market than anyone on this thread - particularly those that have been living and breathing this business for years. Please oh please Style Pts. tell us what we should invest in next... BTW: Your response was pathetic and did nothing to support your case as to why you are bad mouthing the stock when it's down. In fact, you go on to say that it's a strong stock - one that you wouldn't short in the low 70's. Easy to say after the close. I see you didn't take me up on the dare to short. Be that as it may.. I can see that you are a weak individual that apparently talks a big game. My guess is that's about it since anyone investing (or trading) in the sums you say you are would certainly not talk about it publicly. What high school do you go to? Now,... enough of shots... You say you want to invest in ASND/CSCC because you think that they'll succeed in the ATM/FR market... and better Cisco. And COMS... with what? .Good Luck ;) Let's see.. I guess this warrants a bit of analysis. Since I can't give it to you all at once we'll do it in bits. If this isn't enough just bring it on. Read on. In 1996, according to Vertical Systems Cisco had 16.1% share in the ATM market while Cascade was an "OTHER". In 1997 Vertical reported Cisco with a 19.4% market share with Ascend at 3.9%..that was behind NN (15.9%) NT (13.5), Fore - hah (11.9%), and Bay (4.6%) - now they're even behind BAY! Seems to me Ascend has a long road to hoe before it makes any headway here. Notwithstanding they were thrown out of AT&T because the product doesn't work. In the Frame Relay Market (as you call it) Cisco was reported to be behind Cascade (20% to 20.8% respectively) in 1996. In 1997 Cisco is #1 with 17% share versus only 13.1% to Ascend! That's a big drop for Ascend and represents only a $17M increase in revenues in a market that nearly doubled. True Cisco gave up some market share as well but still managed a 30% year over year gain in revenue. I should point out that the lost share is due mainly to a plethora of small vendors entering. This will eventually ring itself out. In frame rely carrier switches Ascend showed well but I'd suggest we sit back and watch that space - remember AT&T... In ISP switches ASND/CSCC went from a whopping 56% share down to 29.1%!!!! YIKE! This while Cisco went from a poor 10.4% showing in 1996 to a 22.6% share in 1997. And finally, in the Enterprise Switch market ASND/CSCC went from a 12.4% showing down to an "OTHER"! I have to admit - it's now clear to me why ASND is DECENDING. I have to thank you for giving me the initiative to go look at my research. Oh... 3COM - they're an OTHER in every category I could find. So, Style, My Good Friend... unless you have some insider knowledge that indicates ASND and COMS are gaining market share instead of losing it, as all my research seems to indicate, then I think you're barking up the wrong tree. Oh...one more thing.. If you want to take shots at ones technical knowledge you should first understand whom you're shooting at. It's true that I may not be a guru as far as market techncials, but one thing I do understand is the networking sector's fundamentals and the products which make up this sector. Gary

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