(Oil) Dear Asean Energy Shareholders,
The market continues to be extremely bearish with the oil and gas sector and banks taking it on the chin.
As a recap for those wondering what is going on, the price of internationally traded oil fell below $65 for the first time in more than five years today after Opec lowered forecasts of demand for its crude to their lowest level in a decade. It worsened the already bearish outlook for oil, which has fallen 43 per cent since mid-June. Brent, the international benchmark, fell as much as 4.9% today to $63.56, the lowest level since July 2009. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, also fell after US crude stocks unexpectedly rose. For prices, the path of least resistance remains down.
The price slide battered energy stocks, with further evidence that cheaper crude was forcing oil companies around the world to rethink their spending plans. The price decline will be particularly painful for US shale operators, who require a relatively high oil price to break even compared to lower-cost producers in the Middle East. But cheaper oil has been a boon for airlines and other industries that consume petroleum products, and should create a greater need for maintenance and servicing of existing, older equipment. Capital spending will be reined in.
In its latest monthly report, Opec said demand for its crude would be 28.92m barrels a day in 2015, which is the lowest level since 2004 and represents a downward revision of about 300,000 b/d from previous estimates. It is also well below the existing 30m b/d output target the cartel decided to stick to at its Vienna meeting last month, despite calls from some countries for a production cut to put a floor under plunging prices. That decision suggested Opec had relinquished its traditional role of modifying production to balance supply and demand, and was letting prices do the job instead. The figures indicate there will be a surplus of 1.13m b/d in 2015, and 1.83m b/d in the first half.
Opec gave no sign that it will cut output. “Why should I cut production?” Ali Al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, told reporters in Lima. “This is a market and I’m selling in a market. Why should I cut?” Ouch!
Best,
Rob van Santen CPA,CA,CMT
Chief Executive Officer
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Asean Energy Corporation ASA-CSE
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